The data indicate that out-of-wedlock births in a given year
correlate
with higher
crime
rates roughly 20 years later. An increase of 10 out-of-wedlock births for 1000 live births is associated with up to a
5%
increase in future murder rates.
Children born out of wedlock are more likely to drop out of high school, more likely to be influenced by negative adult role models, and more likely to experience stress. Extreme stress in childhood
inhibits
the development of higher-order emotional intelligence. The disintegration of the institution of marriage drives violent crime. Poverty does not drive crime. Real poverty in the United States
has essentially been eradicated
. Top line:
reduce out-of-wedlock births
, and crime will fall.
Though the critical factor in violent crime is the dysfunctional family, interventions are effective in mitigating the negative effects of out-of-wedlock births. Researchers found that cognitive therapy interventions reduced violent crime and increased high school graduation rates. The benefit/cost could be as high as
30-1
. Still, to permanently reduce violent crime, the focus must be on reducing the out-of-wedlock birth rate and then identifying at-risk children generally, with a particular emphasis on males. According to the FBI, men account for over 80% of all arrests for violent crimes.
Age also makes a difference in criminal behavior. Rates of violent crime are highest for males in their late teens and early twenties. Males in the 15 to 24-year age group account for up to
40%
of all violent crimes.
Peer relationships also
matter more
for young men. In broken communities where 70% of children are born out of wedlock, young males from dysfunctional families will associate with other young males from dysfunctional families. A negative feedback loop is created, and violent behavior is modeled.
Children born out of wedlock are more likely to drop out of high school, and young men who drop out are more likely to lack full-time jobs; therefore, they are more likely to need money and are more likely to commit violent crimes to obtain money. This is a particular concern for black Americans. Young black men make up less than 6% of the population but account for
up to 40%
of violent crimes, especially homicides. Black Americans are also more likely to be born out of wedlock. The out-of-wedlock birth rate for black Americans
is 70%
, almost 50% higher than the rate for the general population.
Black Americans born out of wedlock are more likely to drop out of high school and are more likely to experience extreme stress as a child. The common factor is out-of-wedlock birth. It is
not poverty
, and it is not race. Fix out-of-wedlock births, and violent crime will fall. Teach the success sequence. If a person graduates from high school, gets a job, then gets married, and only then has children, the risk of poverty is only 3%. The structure of the family is the most important factor in determining rates of violent crime. Fix that, and rates of violent crime will fall dramatically.
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James Rogan is a former U.S. foreign service officer who later worked in finance and law for 30 years. He writes
a daily note
on finance and the economy, politics, sociology, and criminal justice.
